We have now put a little more detail around the outline model , in particular starting to consider the work required at each phase, including where specific experiments are required as well as starting to identify key data sources (and contacts) required for the work.
In what may turn out to be a rash and dreadfully overoptimistic move, we have decided to build a local population forecasting model for Bath and North East Somerset, here’s how we’re going about it:
What are we doing?
We want to build a model which forecasts the local (Bath and North East Somerset) population.
With an election coming up, thoughts turn to registering to vote; campaigns at all levels will start encouraging people to register and participate.
From an open data perspective, the we want to know what could be learnt about electoral registration from the data held locally or in national sources and could it be used to help increase registration levels?
A sub-set of that question was then ‘how can we understand which areas have higher or lower levels of registration in Bath and North East Somerset?’.
This post intends to show it is possible (and reasonably easy) for anyone to run a quick analysis to answer these questions, provided the local authority is willing and able to release some electoral registration statistics.
We were able to achieve this to a small geographical level and publish some findings reasonably easily and it should be easy for any local area to repeat this.
I was fortunate enough to get the opportunity recently to talk with friends at Bath:Hacked about local geographies. This was in part to advertise the upcoming Boundary Review of the area, but also a chance to reflect on the many ways we slice and dice the local authority area.
This was something of a semi-structured ramble through geographies against the ONS’ rather wonderful hierarchical representation of statistical geographies.
In practice, particularly when thinking about any locality, its geography is intertwined with its history, its natural and ecological setting, its psychogeography (if you’re into such things) and so forth. But those caveats notwithstanding, it was a fun exercise.
— Giuseppe Sollazzo (@puntofisso) March 2, 2017
was an interesting thought piece. Could we even identify them, let alone publish them? Here follows a very quick rapid reflection on it…
Previously I’ve managed to display a simple d3.js visualisation on the site through a couple of different methods. Next step is to go from proving a general concept to actually displaying some data that might be interesting.
The BBC recently published a piece on small area referendum voting data. The information was gathered, through Freedom of Information requests, from less than half the local authorities (acting as ‘designated counting areas’) who administered the referendum. It’s a rather problematic piece of work.
This analysis is riddled with errors; there could be evidence of illegal practice; there are clear opportunities to improve practice around election data and the implications of this release have relevance to other realms of government data.
It is incorrect
The analysis and the underlying data are flawed for a number of reasons which immediately spring to mind;
Postal votes weren’t counted spatially. The article repeatedly notes that postal votes aren’t allocated to the areas of their electors beyond the principle area of the election (this is technically untrue, they’re *probably* not allocated to areas) but makes no significant attempts to account for this error.
Mass FOI mail-outs are not and cannot be a systematic data collection method. 44% of counting areas (rather, their corresponding local authorities) responded. No consideration of statistical confidence is made in the analysis, neither is any proportional demographic assessment conducted between responder and non-responders.
At its most basic level, comparing voters with population involves several layers of extrapolation. Even in an area with unprecedented high turnout it can feel spurious. Turnout is a subset of electorate, itself a subset of the eligible voters which in its turn is a subset of the population. The practice of sticking whole populations’ demographics from some nationally standardised data (usually the Census – Hello 2011, don’t you feel like a lifetime ago!) on a scatterplot against the electorate data is, to be polite, rather crude.
I’d add that none of the above should necessarily invalidate the analysis; the disciplines of social research/political science are riddled with bias and I’ve seen far less rigorous analysis published to far greater acclaim. I do think they suggest that they mean the data warrants far more thought and debate than has so far accompanied it.
Some of it is possibly illegal.
A quick tangent into electoral practice: When you vote, you’re given an elector number. This is your sequence on the electoral register within an individual polling district. These are geographical areas allocated to individual ballot boxes in polling stations. These share boundaries with the relevant electoral geography for the election in question. Local government elections being the smallest geographical election they are also (usually) in line with parishes and wards.
And so, to the article:
A few councils released their data at remarkably localised levels, down even to individual polling districts (ie ballot boxes)…or clusters of two/three/four districts… Most places mixed boxes of postal and non-postal votes for counting, so generally it’s not possible to draw comparative conclusions. However there were a few exceptions which recorded them separately, or included a very small number of non-postal votes with the postals.
As identified by @richgreenhill on Twitter, it seems that the data released gives evidence that rule 46(2) of the referendum act which require that votes from individual ballot boxes are mixed with another and that postal votes are counted alongside individual ballots was broken. It is worth caveating here that there may be reasonable responses to all these (multi-polling district ballot boxes being one immediately mentioned).
There is also no legal requirement to produce electorate statistics at an area lower than the principle counting area. The Electoral Commission’s guidance (p3) notes only the requirement for a Counting Officer (responsible officer for each Counting Area) to declare for their voting area. This means that the process of allocation votes to a smaller geography is based on local administrative practice. Elections may be heavily regulated and systematic exercises, but there is a wealth of different on-the-ground practice around management and counting of papers and onward dissemination of data not explicitly prescribed in statutory notices. In addition to creating what I would suggest is at least a legal grey area this creates a further challenge to the validity of the data.
There is a case for change.
Whether a local authority made the internal, administrative decision to collate small-area results, the data was simply not collected for this purpose. Every authority who responded would have been justified in saying ‘no’; but many released. That such a large volume of data could be gathered with relative ease suggests that the standard practice, guidance and legislation is deficient.
Does this make it any different from any other Open Data on its slow route to the public domain or anything different from the next speculative FOI-based bit of journalism? Perhaps not, perhaps this is simply all part of the process, part of the ebb and flow of an increasingly data literate society. Whatever the context of the situation, I would argue that the above challenges mean continuing to release data in this way is not desirable.
The Electoral Commission are well placed to take a view on this, perhaps with support from organisations such as the Open Data Institute and I think it would be in their interests to do so sooner rather than later. I would imagine that we’ll be seeing more Freedom of Information requests of this nature over time and data collection practices will inevitability become more varied. In a time when public perception of political institutions is challenging and intense political divisions are presented as material fact, it seems the time is right to put some thought into this practice.
There are wider implications for data release.
If there does turn out to be evidence of electoral malpractice in this data, then whose responsibility is it to identify that? Is it individual local authorities, or does the author/requester have an accountability to understand the legal context in which they operate or is it sufficient to leave it to a wider, interested community? My initial take is that administrative data is now so prevalent in the public realm that no one stakeholder can practically take sole accountability for it, regardless of legal reality.
Finally, looking towards the end of the article, we can see elements which are relevant to any non-standardised release of data.
…releasing the information was up to the discretion of councils. While some were very willing, in other cases it required a lot of persistence and persuasion…A few places such as Birmingham released their… data …on their own initiative, but in most cases the information had to be obtained by us requesting it directly, and sometimes repeatedly, from the authority.
Whatever the outcome of this (and ongoing confusion is by far the most likely) debate, there are lessons about how creators and users behave with re-purposed data. It’s never been more critical to think about what we should legitimately, pragmatically and ethically do with it.
Pressures on local government are well documented; the pressures faced by local government research (by which I mean analytics in all its flavours) maybe less so?
I believe there are four key challenges we currently face.
1. There is more data than ever before
Surely the most self evident truth facing anyone working in any field, let alone one in which data is an important currency. Every service (from Abandoned shopping trolleys to Zoos) adds realms of transactional data daily to the corpus of local government knowledge. Changing technologies allow more immediate feedback, more automation of transactions, more sensing all create more and more data.This creates opportunities, possibilities and a popular narrative that Something Should Be Done with this data, which creates increased demand. We are asked to anticipate this demand and help decision makers understand the opportunities, challenges and risks in all this data.
2. There are new disciplines and technologies
“Big Data”, “Data Visualisation”, “Guided Analytics”, “Open Data”, “Data Science”, “Personal Analytics”, “Predictive Analytics”, “Machine Learning”, “Risk stratification”, “Natural-language question answering”…
are just a handful of the phrases and concepts doing the rounds. Some will inevitably become little more than redundant jargon while some may cause the same sort of disruptive shift as data.police.uk did when it rendered my first job in this field (taking crime data out of a database to do longitudinal analysis) effectively pointless.
Local government is often painted as being behind the times, but the market will catch up to us, even if we don’t catch up with it. Our citizens, our partners and our service providers will be live to these technologies and so will we if we want to continue to work with them.
3. We have fewer resources
This isn’t a place to debate the politics and practice of public sector austerity. Neither, however, is it possible not to consider the size (both in £s and narrative) of the budget reductions experienced by the sector in recent years. Research is the very definition of a back office function, its value lies in influence and abstracted outcomes, rather than its output. It’s not hard to see why it could be a particularly tempting function to consider as an “efficiency saving”.
It has never been more critical to demonstrate ongoing impact and effectiveness of our work, particularly in the light of the previously mentioned demand pressures. As well as being live to new developments we have to strive to ensure that there is a genuine and politically articulated value to our work.
4. Local government reform has arrived
Significant Local Government reform is happening, even it’s not been so structured as it has been in the past. The Devolution agenda is creating new public bodies, with new powers and has the potential over time to radically reshape what local government can do. The opportunities held within a new public body to react to the above pressures can’t be underestimated, but it won’t do so by behaving in the same ways as before. These new ways of working will engender new approaches to research and analytics, but what will they be?
What happens next?
it’s clear there are a number of distinct approaches emerging as to how local areas are responding to these challenges. A review of these will form some future posts.
In fiddling around with wp-d3 I found myself getting increasingly confused. Particularly when faced with code that looks like this. It wasn’t at all clear* how to translate it into something that would be understood by the plugin.
Once again I returned to searching and this time came across this tutorial, which used an iframe (I’ve come across these before in embedding tableau content in our wiki – they’re sort of a window to point to content somewhere else, I think?)
This approach to cut/paste/load seems infinitely more intuitive to me than the wp-d3 approach and seems to have delivered something reasonable. I’m sure there are 1001 great reasons not to take an iframe approach, but this seems to have worked…
Next steps are to get some real content into this and then start fiddling with the design…
*big caveat – neither should it be: I am not intending to be critical of it, just that it made no sense to me as a complete newcomer to this.